The article stated: The 27th of September 2020 will be recorded in history as the day of the outbreak of a new war in Karabakh. What happened, unfortunately, should have happened: Azerbaijan decided to avenge the defeat it suffered 26 years ago. For Russia, this news does not bode well. It would have been good for Moscow that the status quo had remained, but this is clearly not going to happen.
The international reaction to the events of Karabakh is particularly significant. The countries of the European Union, the United States of America, Russia and Iran have expressed their concern, and they have not blamed either side for starting the war.
As for Turkey, it stands alone. Its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, supports Azerbaijan in harsher terms than it was during the summer clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But the extent of Turkey’s willingness to intervene in events in the neighboring country remains a point of contention.
The attack on Armenia is covered by the provisions of the Collective Security Organization Treaty. This means that Russia will have to go to war against Turkey. It’s a scenario that looks a lot like a bad fantasy now, but this year already offers a lot of bad surprises. So this cannot be ruled out.
Ilham Aliyev’s motives are clear: he decided to take advantage of the situation. Russia is preoccupied with Belarus and its bickering with the West over the Navalny case. In addition, Nikol Pashinyan, who is in power in Armenia, got there as a result of street protests, and the Kremlin has barely digested such leaders. This means that Moscow, in theory, will not show much activity in the direction of Karabakh.
In the years following the first Karabakh war – and, unfortunately, it will now have to be called this way – Moscow has seriously pretended to have two allies in the Caucasus: Azerbaijan and Armenia. Now, if the war cannot be stopped, a choice will have to be made between them. And prepare for its tragic consequences, that is, at least the thousands of refugees who will flow into Russia from the stricken region.
The article expresses only the opinion of the newspaper or writer